Modeling Annual White Shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus) Harvest from Fishery Independent Assessment Parameters

Carolyn N. Belcher and John Fortuna
Coastal Resources Division, Brunswick, GA 31520, 912-264-7218, carolynb@fisheries.dnr.state.ga.us

Georgia's white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus) fishery is the state's largest economic producer and ranks second in terms of total pounds landed. In order to better manage the fishery, the need for a predictive model indicating a relationship between annual landings and monthly coastwide assessment parameters (e.g. pounds per hour, water temp. and salinity) was addressed. Two potential models were developed. One model utilized data collected over the course of a calendar year (January 1 through December 31 of the landings year) while the other utilized data collected over the course of a shrimp production year (July 1 of the previous year through June 30 of the landings year). The shrimp production year model was developed as a means to make better management recommendations earlier in the landings year. Although the calendar year model does not function well as a management tool (requires data collected in the last few months of the landings year) it does give insight into critical parameters that affect landings. Multivariate regression, utilizing a backward elimination procedure, was applied in both cases to determine which parameters significantly contributed to the prediction of annual landings.